10 Lei – Romania

In 2017, Romania's currency situation was characterized by a period of relative stability and gradual appreciation for the Romanian Leu (RON) against the Euro, a notable shift from previous years of volatility. The RON strengthened to around 4.5-4.6 against the Euro, its strongest level in several years, driven by robust economic growth exceeding 7%—the highest in the EU—and significant inflows of European funds. This economic performance, coupled with higher interest rates from the National Bank of Romania (NBR) to combat rising inflation, made the Leu attractive for carry trades, where investors borrowed in low-interest currencies to invest in higher-yielding Romanian assets.

However, this appreciation occurred amidst underlying political and fiscal tensions that created a dual narrative. The government, led by the Social Democratic Party (PSD), pursued expansionary fiscal policies, including significant wage and pension increases, which raised concerns among investors and the NBR about long-term macroeconomic stability and inflation. These concerns periodically triggered warnings from credit rating agencies and brief episodes of volatility, as markets weighed strong short-term growth against potential overheating and fiscal slippage. The NBR thus walked a tightrope, maintaining a cautious monetary policy to manage inflation—which rose sharply to over 5% by year-end—without stifling growth or causing excessive currency strength that could hurt exporters.

Overall, 2017 presented a contrast between a strong, growth-driven currency and persistent structural vulnerabilities. While the Leu's performance reflected confidence in Romania's booming economy, the central bank remained vigilant, frequently intervening in the foreign exchange market to smooth out excessive fluctuations. The year ended with the currency stable but with clear cautionary signals regarding fiscal discipline and inflation, setting the stage for the economic policy debates that would follow in subsequent years.