10 Lei – Romania

In 2015, Romania's currency situation was characterized by a period of relative stability and cautious optimism for the Romanian Leu (RON), following a period of significant volatility. The National Bank of Romania (NBR) maintained a managed float regime, actively intervening in the foreign exchange market to smooth out excessive fluctuations without targeting a specific exchange rate. This approach was largely successful, with the EUR/RON exchange rate remaining within a relatively narrow band, typically between 4.4 and 4.5 lei per euro for much of the year. This stability was underpinned by strong macroeconomic fundamentals, including robust GDP growth (one of the highest in the EU), falling inflation, and a narrowing current account deficit.

Key factors supporting the leu included a series of proactive interest rate cuts by the NBR, which aimed to stimulate lending and economic growth while keeping inflation in check. Furthermore, Romania's successful conclusion of a precautionary standby agreement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in September 2015 bolstered investor confidence. This agreement, though not requiring immediate drawdown of funds, served as a policy anchor and a safety net, reassuring markets of the country's fiscal discipline and economic management. Inflows of European Union funds also provided structural support for the currency.

However, the stability was not without underlying pressures and vulnerabilities. Political instability, including a high-profile corruption scandal and a nightclub fire that led to mass protests and a government resignation, periodically rattled investor sentiment. Externally, the lingering effects of the Eurozone debt crisis and uncertainty surrounding global monetary policy, particularly the U.S. Federal Reserve's moves, created a cautious environment. Consequently, while the leu ended 2015 stronger than it began against the euro, the NBR remained vigilant, ready to use its reserves to counteract any speculative attacks or sudden capital outflows, ensuring the currency's resilience in a fragile global context.