25 Rupiah – Indonesia

In 1991, Indonesia's currency situation was characterized by a period of relative stability and cautious optimism under the managed floating exchange rate system administered by Bank Indonesia. The rupiah was pegged to a basket of currencies of Indonesia's major trading partners, though the composition was not publicly disclosed. This policy, in place since the 1970s, aimed to maintain export competitiveness by preventing sharp appreciations, while also providing a measure of predictability for businesses and investors. The year saw the rupiah experience only a modest controlled depreciation of approximately 4% against the US dollar, a deliberate move to offset higher domestic inflation and maintain the competitiveness of key exports like oil, gas, and textiles.

This stability was underpinned by several favorable macroeconomic conditions. The economy was growing robustly, fueled by strong foreign investment inflows and high global oil prices, which boosted government revenues. Furthermore, Indonesia was benefiting from a wave of capital inflows into emerging markets in the early 1990s. The country's debt situation had also improved significantly since the reforms of the late 1980s, with prudent fiscal management and a growing non-oil export sector reducing vulnerability to external shocks. Consequently, foreign exchange reserves were adequate, providing Bank Indonesia with the means to effectively manage the exchange rate within its targeted band.

However, this apparent calm masked underlying vulnerabilities that would later contribute to the 1997 Asian Financial Crisis. The banking sector was expanding rapidly with inadequate supervision, leading to a buildup of risky private-sector debt, much of which was denominated in US dollars. The rigidity of the managed exchange rate regime created a perception of implicit government guarantee against currency risk, encouraging further foreign borrowing. While 1991 itself was not a year of crisis, it represented the peak of a stability that was increasingly reliant on sustained investor confidence and continuous capital inflows, setting the stage for future turbulence when those conditions eventually reversed.