In 2013, Norway's currency situation was dominated by the persistent strength of the Norwegian krone (NOK), a phenomenon often referred to as the "krone paradox." Despite historically low interest rates from Norges Bank, the central bank, the krone remained robust, trading at high levels against major currencies like the euro and the US dollar. This strength was fundamentally driven by Norway's strong economic position, fueled by high oil and gas prices, substantial foreign exchange reserves, and a sovereign wealth fund (the Government Pension Fund Global) that was the largest in the world. The country's AAA credit rating and fiscal stability made the krone a sought-after safe-haven currency.
This strong krone presented a significant challenge for Norway's non-oil export industries, particularly manufacturing, fisheries, and tourism. Companies in these sectors faced intense competitive pressure in international markets, as their goods and services became more expensive for foreign buyers. The situation sparked considerable debate between industry leaders, who called for intervention to weaken the currency, and the central bank, which emphasized its mandate for price stability. Norges Bank's main policy tool was the key policy rate, which it had cut to 1.5% by March 2013 in part to temper krone appreciation, but with limited effect.
Consequently, 2013 was a year of strategic patience and limited tools for Norwegian monetary authorities. Norges Bank explicitly stated it would not engage in direct currency intervention, relying instead on interest rate policy and verbal guidance. The bank's forward guidance in its monetary policy reports consistently signaled that rates would remain low for an extended period, a stance aimed at capping the krone's rise. The year ended with the currency strength largely unabated, underscoring the complex disconnect between domestic interest rate policy and a currency valuation overwhelmingly shaped by global hydrocarbon markets and macroeconomic stability.