3 Rubles – Russian Federation

In 2013, the Russian ruble exhibited relative stability, marking a period of calm before the significant volatility that would characterize the following years. The currency traded in a managed float within a dual-currency basket band (55% USD, 45% EUR) set by the Central Bank of Russia (CBR). This stability was underpinned by high global oil prices, which averaged over $100 per barrel for much of the year, ensuring strong foreign currency inflows from hydrocarbon exports. Consequently, Russia maintained substantial foreign exchange reserves, exceeding $500 billion, which provided a robust buffer against external shocks and allowed the CBR to intervene smoothly to curb excessive fluctuations.

However, underlying structural vulnerabilities and external pressures were mounting beneath this stable surface. The Russian economy was experiencing a pronounced slowdown, with GDP growth decelerating to just 1.3% for the year, its weakest pace since the 2009 global financial crisis. This stagnation was driven by a lack of investment, poor productivity growth, and a deteriorating business climate, highlighting the economy's deep dependence on commodity revenues. Furthermore, geopolitical tensions were beginning to simmer, with debates over Ukraine's potential association agreement with the European Union creating unease in financial markets, though the full-scale crisis was still ahead.

By the end of 2013, the ruble's stability was increasingly perceived as fragile and contingent on sustained high energy prices. The CBR was in a transitional phase, gradually widening the ruble's trading band as part of a long-stated policy move towards a free float, aiming to insulate its reserves and shift to inflation targeting. This period, therefore, represented the final chapter of relative calm, with the economy's fundamental weaknesses and looming geopolitical events setting the stage for the currency turbulence that would erupt in 2014 following the annexation of Crimea and the concurrent collapse in oil prices.