¼ Sovereign – United Kingdom

In 2015, the United Kingdom's currency situation was dominated by two major themes: sustained strength of the British Pound Sterling and mounting political uncertainty. The pound, particularly against the euro, reached multi-year highs, with the GBP/EUR rate approaching €1.40 in the summer. This strength was largely driven by diverging monetary policy expectations; while the European Central Bank embarked on a major quantitative easing programme, the Bank of England was widely anticipated to be the first major central bank to raise interest rates from their historic 0.5% low. A robust domestic recovery and falling unemployment bolstered this view, making sterling an attractive currency for investors.

However, this financial stability existed against a backdrop of growing political risk. The surprise outright victory of the Conservative Party in the May 2015 general election immediately triggered the commitment to hold a referendum on the UK's membership of the European Union. The announcement of this "Brexit" referendum, pledged before the end of 2017, introduced a profound layer of long-term uncertainty. While the pound initially rallied on the election result, which eliminated the prior coalition government's instability, the looming EU vote began to cast a shadow, creating a tension between strong economic data and fears over the UK's future political and trade relationships.

Consequently, the Bank of England faced a complex balancing act. Governor Mark Carney and the Monetary Policy Committee signalled that the timing of any interest rate rise would be "data-dependent," but the inflation environment remained muted due to a sharp fall in global oil prices. This kept Consumer Price Index inflation around zero for much of the year, easing pressure for immediate rate hikes. By the year's end, the narrative had subtly shifted: the certainty of an impending rate rise had diminished, and the sterling's value began to soften as markets increasingly priced in the political risks of the forthcoming EU referendum, setting the stage for the volatility that would define 2016.