By 1999, the Russian Federation was in a state of severe economic crisis following the
1998 Russian financial collapse (the "Ruble Crisis"). The government had been forced to default on its domestic debt, devalue the ruble, and declare a moratorium on payments to foreign creditors. This shattered confidence in the financial system, leading to a banking crisis, soaring inflation, and a dramatic drop in living standards. The ruble, which had been artificially maintained within a narrow band, lost over 70% of its value against the US dollar in the second half of 1998, plunging from roughly 6 RUB/USD to about 24 RUB/USD by early 1999.
The currency situation in 1999 was characterized by a managed float, but one heavily influenced by strict capital controls imposed in the wake of the default. These controls restricted foreign currency transactions and gave the Central Bank of Russia (CBR) greater power to stabilize the exchange rate. Crucially, the economic landscape began to shift due to a
sharp rise in global oil prices. As a major oil exporter, Russia started to see a significant influx of dollar revenues, which boosted foreign reserves and provided the CBR with the means to intervene in support of the ruble, preventing further freefall.
Consequently, 1999 became a year of painful stabilization and unexpected macroeconomic adjustment. The weak ruble made imports expensive but spurred a surge in domestic industrial production, as Russian goods became more competitive. This import substitution, combined with the oil windfall, allowed the government to run a budget surplus and begin rebuilding reserves. By the end of 1999, the ruble had stabilized at around 27 RUB/USD, inflation was being brought down from its 1998 peak, and the economy returned to growth. Thus, the year marked the beginning of a recovery, setting the stage for the economic resurgence of the early 2000s, albeit with the currency's stability now critically tied to commodity exports.