20 Cents – South Africa

In 2023, the South African Rand (ZAR) faced a year of significant volatility and pressure, largely trading within a wide band of R17 to R19 against the US Dollar. The currency's trajectory was dominated by a persistent and challenging domestic environment. Chronic issues including severe load-shedding (planned power blackouts), logistical bottlenecks at Transnet's ports and rails, and a stagnant economy with high unemployment created a backdrop of low investor confidence and constrained growth. These structural weaknesses, often termed "South Africa-specific risks," were the fundamental drivers of the Rand's weakness, as they directly impacted the country's productive capacity and fiscal outlook.

The currency was also highly reactive to both global and local financial developments. Internationally, the Rand weakened during periods of heightened global risk aversion and as the US Federal Reserve continued its aggressive interest rate hiking cycle, which strengthened the Dollar globally. Domestically, monetary policy from the South African Reserve Bank (SARB), which raised rates to combat persistent inflation, provided only intermittent support. Major spikes in volatility occurred around key events, most notably the diplomatic crisis in May surrounding the US allegation that a Russian vessel had collected arms in South Africa. This incident triggered a sharp sell-off, bringing the Rand perilously close to the R20/$ mark and highlighting its sensitivity to geopolitical shocks.

By the close of 2023, the Rand remained vulnerable, ending the year as one of the emerging market currencies most heavily impacted by domestic challenges. While it avoided a complete collapse, it consistently underperformed its peers. The year underscored that without meaningful progress in resolving the country's electricity, logistics, and fiscal crises, the currency would remain susceptible to both internal deterioration and external shocks, with its fortunes inextricably linked to the implementation of long-promised structural reforms.