1 Ruble – Russian Federation

In 2017, the Russian economy and its currency, the ruble, were in a period of relative stabilization following the severe shocks of 2014-2015. The primary drivers of the earlier crisis—the sharp decline in global oil prices and the imposition of Western financial sanctions following the annexation of Crimea—remained in place, but their acute pressure had eased. The ruble had found a new, weaker equilibrium, trading in a range of roughly 55 to 60 rubles per US dollar for much of the year, which was significantly depreciated from pre-2014 levels but stable. This stability was underpinned by a rebound in oil prices, which averaged around $53 per barrel for Brent crude, and the economy's painful adjustment to the new normal, including a shift towards import substitution.

Monetary policy by the Central Bank of Russia (CBR) was a key factor in this stabilization. Having moved to a free-floating exchange rate in late 2014, the CBR focused decisively on inflation targeting. Throughout 2017, it pursued an aggressive cycle of interest rate cuts, reducing the key rate from 10% at the start of the year to 7.75% by December. This was possible because annual inflation had fallen dramatically to a post-Soviet low of around 3-4%, down from double-digit figures just two years prior. The rate cuts aimed to stimulate lending and economic growth, but were carefully calibrated to avoid triggering a new wave of ruble depreciation and inflation.

Overall, the financial atmosphere in 2017 was one of cautious normalization. The federal budget was adjusted to a "budget rule" that directed oil revenues above a certain threshold into reserves, shielding the ruble from direct hydrocarbon volatility. While structural weaknesses persisted and growth remained anemic at 1.5% GDP growth, the currency crisis was over. The ruble's value in 2017 was largely dictated by the dual anchors of global oil prices and the CBR's credible inflation-focused policy, allowing the government and businesses to operate with greater predictability despite the ongoing geopolitical tensions.