5 Hryven – Ukraine

As of 2025, Ukraine's currency situation remains defined by a managed stability under extraordinary conditions. The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) continues to maintain a fixed exchange rate regime, initially imposed after the full-scale invasion in 2022. The official hryvnia (UAH) rate has been pegged at approximately 36.57 to the US dollar, a level preserved through strict capital controls, mandatory surrender of export proceeds, and significant international financial support. This policy has successfully prevented a currency collapse and hyperinflation, providing a crucial anchor for the wartime economy by ensuring predictability for critical imports and government spending.

However, this stability comes at a cost and masks underlying pressures. The currency is fundamentally overvalued, sustained not by market forces but by administrative measures and foreign aid inflows from partners like the EU, IMF, and the United States. A large shadow currency market exists, where the hryvnia trades at a significant discount, reflecting pent-up devaluation pressure and restricted access to foreign exchange for many businesses and individuals. The economy's structure has shifted, with a massive budget deficit financed by money printing and external assistance, creating persistent inflationary risks that the NBU combats with high interest rates.

The outlook for the hryvnia is entirely contingent on the military and political trajectory of the war. Discussions about a future, gradual transition to a more flexible exchange rate are held in policy circles, but any such move is considered post-war medicine. For 2025, the priority remains unwavering monetary stability as a component of national defense. The currency's fate is therefore inextricably linked to the continuation of substantial external financing and the maintenance of strict controls, with the goal of preserving economic functionality until a return to peacetime conditions allows for deeper structural reforms.