5 Hryven – Ukraine

In 2013, Ukraine's currency, the hryvnia (UAH), was under significant strain due to a combination of deep-seated economic vulnerabilities and immediate political pressures. The country was grappling with a large current account deficit, dwindling foreign exchange reserves, and heavy reliance on expensive gas imports from Russia. These structural weaknesses were exacerbated by the government's refusal to implement critical economic reforms advocated by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), particularly regarding domestic gas subsidies. Consequently, investor confidence was low, and the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) was engaged in a costly and ultimately unsustainable effort to maintain a de facto peg to the U.S. dollar, which had been in place since 2010.

The political dimension was paramount. President Viktor Yanukovych's sudden decision in November 2013 to reject an Association Agreement with the European Union in favor of closer ties with Russia triggered the Euromaidan protests. This political crisis created immediate capital flight and market panic, placing immense speculative pressure on the hryvnia. The NBU was forced to intervene heavily, spending billions from its reserves to defend the currency's value, which fell from approximately 8 UAH/USD at the start of the year to nearly 8.5 by year's end on the official market, with a much wider gap on the black market.

By December 2013, Ukraine's currency situation was precarious and on the brink of collapse. Foreign reserves had plummeted to a critically low level, covering less than two months of imports. The economy was sliding into recession, and the government faced an urgent need for external financing to avoid default. The stage was set for the severe currency crisis that would erupt in early 2014 following the revolution and Russia's annexation of Crimea, leading to a sharp devaluation where the hryvnia would lose over half of its value within a year.